REALTORS® expected home prices to increase modestly in the next 12 months, with the median expected price increase at 3.5 percent, according to data gathered from the August 2014 REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey. [1] Local conditions vary with expectations anchored on factors such as the level of inventory, the state of the local job market, and credit conditions.
The map below shows the median expected price change in the next 12 months by the state of REALTOR® respondents in the June – August 2014 surveys. Respondents from Florida, Texas, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia expected prices to increase in the range of 5 to 6 percent. These states are experiencing strong job growth from the technology and oil industries. Respondents in the Great Lakes area where manufacturing (led by the automotive sector) has made a comeback also expect respectable price growth of 3 to 5 percent.
[1] The median expected price change is the value such that 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change above this value and 50 percent of respondents expect prices to change below this value. A median expected price change is computed for each state based on the respondents for that state. The graph shows the range of these state median expected price change. To increase sample size, the data is averaged from the last three survey months.